The role of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing post-COVID-19 thromboembolic and cardiovascular complications.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association between COVID-19 vaccination and the risk of post-COVID-19 cardiac and thromboembolic complications. METHODS: We conducted a staggered cohort study based on national vaccination campaigns using electronic health records from the UK, Spain and Estonia. Vaccine rollout was grouped into four stages with predefined enrolment periods. Each stage included all individuals eligible for vaccination, with no previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 vaccine at the start date. Vaccination status was used as a time-varying exposure. Outcomes included heart failure (HF), venous thromboembolism (VTE) and arterial thrombosis/thromboembolism (ATE) recorded in four time windows after SARS-CoV-2 infection: 0-30, 31-90, 91-180 and 181-365 days. Propensity score overlap weighting and empirical calibration were used to minimise observed and unobserved confounding, respectively.Fine-Gray models estimated subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR). Random effect meta-analyses were conducted across staggered cohorts and databases. RESULTS: The study included 10.17 million vaccinated and 10.39 million unvaccinated people. Vaccination was associated with reduced risks of acute (30-day) and post-acute COVID-19 VTE, ATE and HF: for example, meta-analytic sHR of 0.22 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.29), 0.53 (0.44 to 0.63) and 0.45 (0.38 to 0.53), respectively, for 0-30 days after SARS-CoV-2 infection, while in the 91-180 days sHR were 0.53 (0.40 to 0.70), 0.72 (0.58 to 0.88) and 0.61 (0.51 to 0.73), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination reduced the risk of post-COVID-19 cardiac and thromboembolic outcomes. These effects were more pronounced for acute COVID-19 outcomes, consistent with known reductions in disease severity following breakthrough versus unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Patient-reported symptoms and diagnostic journey in Multiple Myeloma.

Introduction: Late presentation of multiple myeloma (MM) heightens the risk of complication risks, including end-organ damage. This study aimed to: 1) detail the diagnostic journey of MM patients, encompassing symptoms, initial diagnoses, and healthcare professionals met; 2) establish the median duration from symptom onset to MM diagnosis; and 3) examine factors linked to timely MM diagnosis within 12 weeks. Methods: A total of 300 adults self-reporting MM were analysed from the Rare and Undiagnosed Diseases cohort Study (RUDY). The RUDY study is a web-based platform, where participants provide dynamic consent and self-report their MM diagnosis and information about their diagnostic journey. This includes the estimated date of initial potential first symptoms, descriptions of these symptoms, the healthcare professionals they consulted, and other diagnoses received before the MM diagnosis. Descriptive statistics, combinatorial analyses and logistic regression analyses were used to describe and examine the diagnostic journey of individuals with MM. Results: Overall, 52% of the participants reported other diagnoses before MM diagnosis, with musculoskeletal disorders (47.8%), such as osteoporosis, costochondritis, or muscle strains, being the most common. The most prevalent initial reported symptom was back pain/vertebral fractures (47%), followed by chest/shoulder pain, including rib pain and fractures (20%), and fatigue/tiredness (19.7%). 40% of participants were diagnosed by direct referral from primary care to haematology without seeing other healthcare professionals whilst 60% consulted additional specialists before diagnosis. The median time from symptom onset to MM diagnosis was 4 months (IQR 2-10 months, range 0-172). Seeing an Allied Healthcare Professional such as a physiotherapist, chiropractor or an osteopath (OR = 0.25, 95% CI [0.12, 0.47], p <0.001), experiencing infection symptoms (OR = 0.32, 95% CI [0.13, 0.76], p = 0.013), and having chest or shoulder pain (OR = 0.45, 95% CI [0.23, 0.86], p = 0.020) were associated with a lower likelihood of being diagnosed with MM within 12 weeks. Older age (OR = 1.04, 95% CI [1.02, 1.07], p = 0.001) was associated with a higher likelihood of diagnosis within 12 weeks. Discussion: Developing resources for allied health professionals may improve early recognition of MM.

Drug utilization analysis of osteoporosis medications in seven European electronic health databases.

We studied the characteristics of patients prescribed osteoporosis medication and patterns of use in European databases. Patients were mostly female, older, had hypertension. There was suboptimal persistence particularly for oral medications. Our findings would be useful to healthcare providers to focus their resources on improving persistence to specific osteoporosis treatments. PURPOSE: To characterise the patients prescribed osteoporosis therapy and describe the drug utilization patterns. METHODS: We investigated the treatment patterns of bisphosphonates, denosumab, teriparatide, and selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) in seven European databases in the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, and Germany. In this cohort study, we included adults aged ≥ 18 years, with ≥ 1 year of registration in the respective databases, who were new users of the osteoporosis medications. The study period was between 01 January 2018 to 31 January 2022. RESULTS: Overall, patients were most commonly initiated on alendronate. Persistence decreased over time across all medications and databases, ranging from 52-73% at 6 months to 29-53% at 12 months for alendronate. For other oral bisphosphonates, the proportion of persistent users was 50-66% at 6 months and decreased to 30-44% at 12 months. For SERMs, the proportion of persistent users at 6 months was 40-73% and decreased to 25-59% at 12 months. For parenteral treatment groups, the proportions of persistence with denosumab were 50-85% (6 month), 30-63% (12 month) and with teriparatide 40-75% (6 month) decreasing to 21-54% (12 month). Switching occurred most frequently in the alendronate group (2.8-5.8%) and in the teriparatide group (7.1-14%). Switching typically occurred in the first 6 months and decreased over time. Patients in the alendronate group most often switched to other oral or intravenous bisphosphonates and denosumab. CONCLUSION: Our results show suboptimal persistence to medications that varied across different databases and treatment switching was relatively rare.

Patient-reported outcomes measures of X-linked hypophosphataemia participants: findings from a prospective cohort study in the UK.

BACKGROUND: X-linked hypophosphataemia (XLH) is a rare genetic condition passed on through the X chromosome which causes multiple symptoms including weakened teeth, bones, and muscles. Due to the rarity of the condition, little is known about the health outcomes as reported by people with the disease. The objectives of this study were threefold: to characterise key patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) in adults with XLH, to identify clusters of symptom-severity groups based on PROMs, and to analyse the longitudinal progression of available PROMs. METHODS: Data from 48 participants from the Rare and Undiagnosed Diseases cohort Study (RUDY) was used to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal patient-reported outcomes. We analysed data for health-related quality of life (HRQL): EuroQol 5 dimensions-5 levels (EQ-5D-5L), Short-form 36 (SF-36) Physical Component Score (PCS), and SF-36 Mental Component Score (MCS), sleep: Pittsburgh sleep quality index (PSQI) and Epworth Sleepiness scale (ESS), fatigue: Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) and Functional assessment of chronic illness therapy-fatigue (FACIT-F), pain: Short form McGill pain questionnaire version 2 (SF-MPQ-2) and PainDETECT, and mental well-being: Hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS) anxiety and depression. Summary statistics, tests of mean differences, mixed-effects models, and cluster analysis were used to describe and examine the various health dimensions of individuals with XLH. RESULTS: Overall mean scores were EQ-5D-5L = 0.65, SF-36-PCS = 32.7, and SF-36-MCS = 48.4 for HRQL, ESS = 5.9 and PSQI = 8.9 for sleep, FSS = 32.8 and FACIT-F = 104.4 for fatigue, SF-MPQ-2 = 1.9 for pain, and HADS-depression = 4.7 and HADS-anxiety = 6.2 for mental well-being. 7% reported neuropathic pain (PainDETECT). Whilst many adults with XLH reported good outcomes, extreme or severe problems were reported across all outcomes. Cluster analysis identified that adults with XLH could be divided into two distinct groups, one reporting worse (35.3%) and the other better outcomes (64.7%) (less pain, fatigue, depression, and higher levels of sleep). Longitudinal analysis showed that FACIT-F and HADS-anxiety scores worsened slightly over two years with statistically significant (p < 0.05) time coefficients (b = - 2.135 and b = 0.314, respectively). CONCLUSION: Although about two thirds of adult participants of the RUDY cohort with XLH report good health outcomes, for a considerable third much worse outcomes are reported. More research is needed to examine why some experience good and others poor health outcomes and the characteristics which identify them.

Development and validation of a prediction model for self-reported mobility decline in community-dwelling older adults.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to develop and validate two models to predict 2-year risk of self-reported mobility decline among community-dwelling older adults. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used data from a prospective cohort study of people aged 65 years and over in England. Mobility status was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L mobility question. The models were based on the outcome: Model 1, any mobility decline at 2 years; Model 2, new onset of persistent mobility problems over 2 years. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression was used to select predictors. Model performance was assessed using C-statistics, calibration plot, Brier scores, and decision curve analyses. Models were internally validated using bootstrapping. RESULTS: Over 18% of participants who could walk reported mobility decline at year 2 (Model 1), and 7.1% with no mobility problems at baseline, reported new onset of mobility problems after 2 years (Model 2). Thirteen and 6 out of 31 variables were selected as predictors in Models 1 and 2, respectively. Models 1 and 2 had a C-statistic of 0.740 and 0.765 (optimism < 0.013), and Brier score = 0.136 and 0.069, respectively. CONCLUSION: Two prediction models for mobility decline were developed and internally validated. They are based on self-reported variables and could serve as simple assessments in primary care after external validation.

Understanding prescribed dose in hand strengthening exercise for rheumatoid arthritis: A secondary analysis of the SARAH trial.

OBJECTIVE: 1) To identify therapist or participant characteristics associated with prescribed dose of hand strengthening exercise in adults with rheumatoid arthritis and 2) To determine the impact of dose prescribed on outcome (hand function and grip strength). METHODS: Overall dose was calculated using area under the curve (AUC). Analysis 1 assessed the association between therapist professional background, therapist grade, baseline participant physical and psychological characteristics and prescribed dose. Analyses 2 and 3 estimated the relationship between prescribed dose and overall hand function and grip strength. Generalised estimating equation linear regression analysis was used. RESULTS: Analysis 1: Being treated by an occupational therapist (ß = -297.0, 95% CI -398.6, -195.4), metacarpophalangeal joint deformity (ß = -24.1, 95% CI -42.3, -5.9), a higher number of swollen wrist/hand joints (ß = -11.4, 95% CI -21.6, -1.2) and the participant feeling downhearted and low all of the time (ß = -293.6, 95% CI -436.1, -151.1) were associated with being prescribed a lower dose. Being treated by a grade 6 therapist (ß = 159.1, 95% CI 65.7, 252.5), higher baseline grip strength (ß = 0.15, 95% CI 0.02, 0.28) and greater participant confidence to exercise without fear of making symptoms worse (ß = 18.9, 95% CI 1.5, 36.3) were associated with being prescribed a higher dose. Analyses 2 and 3: Higher dose was associated with greater overall hand function (ß = 0.005, 95% CI 0.001, 0.010) and full-hand grip strength (ß = 0.014, 95% CI 0.000, 0.025) at 4-month. CONCLUSION: Higher dose was associated with better clinical outcomes. Prescription of hand strengthening exercise is associated with both therapist and participant characteristics.

Progression of chronic pain and associated health-related quality of life and healthcare resource use over 5 years after total knee replacement: evidence from a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: As part of the STAR Programme, a comprehensive study exploring long-term pain after surgery, we investigated how pain and function, health-related quality of life (HRQL), and healthcare resource use evolved over 5 years after total knee replacement (TKR) for those with and without chronic pain 1 year after their primary surgery. METHODS: We used data from the Clinical Outcomes in Arthroplasty Study prospective cohort study, which followed patients undergoing TKR from two English hospitals for 5 years. Chronic pain was defined using the Oxford Knee Score Pain Subscale (OKS-PS) where participants reporting a score of 14 or lower were classified as having chronic pain 1-year postsurgery. Pain and function were measured with the OKS, HRQL using the EuroQoL-5 Dimension, resource use from yearly questionnaires, and costs estimated from a healthcare system perspective. We analysed the changes in OKS-PS, HRQL and resource use over a 5-year follow-up period. Multiple imputation accounted for missing data. RESULTS: Chronic pain was reported in 70/552 operated knees (12.7%) 1 year after surgery. The chronic pain group had worse pain, function and HRQL presurgery and postsurgery than the non-chronic pain group. Those without chronic pain markedly improved right after surgery, then plateaued. Those with chronic pain improved slowly but steadily. Participants with chronic pain reported greater healthcare resource use and costs than those without, especially 1 year after surgery, and mostly from hospital readmissions. 64.7% of those in chronic pain recovered during the following 4 years, while 30.9% fluctuated in and out of chronic pain. CONCLUSION: Although TKR is often highly beneficial, some patients experienced chronic pain postsurgery. Although many fluctuated in their pain levels and most recovered over time, identifying people most likely to have chronic pain and supporting their recovery would benefit patients and healthcare systems.

Recreational Physical Activity and Risk of Incident Knee Osteoarthritis: An International Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant-Level Data.

OBJECTIVE: The effect of physical activity on the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis (OA) is unclear. We undertook this study to examine the relationship between recreational physical activity and incident knee OA outcomes using comparable physical activity and OA definitions. METHODS: Data were acquired from 6 global, community-based cohorts of participants with and those without knee OA. Eligible participants had no evidence of knee OA or rheumatoid arthritis at baseline. Participants were followed up for 5-12 years for incident outcomes including the following: 1) radiographic knee OA (Kellgren-Lawrence [K/L] grade ≥2), 2) painful radiographic knee OA (radiographic OA with knee pain), and 3) OA-related knee pain. Self-reported recreational physical activity included sports and walking/cycling activities and was quantified at baseline as metabolic equivalents of task (METs) in days per week. Risk ratios (RRs) were calculated and pooled using individual participant data meta-analysis. Secondary analysis assessed the association between physical activity, defined as time (hours per week) spent in recreational physical activity and incident knee OA outcomes. RESULTS: Based on a total of 5,065 participants, pooled RR estimates for the association of MET days per week with painful radiographic OA (RR 1.02 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.93-1.12]), radiographic OA (RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.94-1.07]), and OA-related knee pain (RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.96-1.04]) were not significant. Similarly, the analysis of hours per week spent in physical activity also showed no significant associations with all outcomes. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that whole-body, physiologic energy expenditure during recreational activities and time spent in physical activity were not associated with incident knee OA outcomes.

A Higher Playing Standard, Bowling, and Intermittent Helmet Use Are Related to a Greater Odds of Injury or Concussion in Cricket.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if playing position, a higher playing standard, and nonhelmet use are related to an increased odds of joint-specific injury and concussion in cricket. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-eight thousand one hundred fifty-two current or former recreational and high-performance cricketers registered on a national database were invited to participate in the Cricket Health and Wellbeing Study. Eligibility requirements were aged ≥18 years and played ≥1 cricket season. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: Main playing position (bowler/batter/all-rounder), playing standard (high-performance/recreational), and helmet use (always/most of the time/occasionally/never). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cross-sectional questionnaire data included cricket-related injury (hip/groin, knee, ankle, shoulder, hand, back) resulting in ≥4 weeks of reduced exercise and self-reported concussion history. Crude and adjusted (adjusted for seasons played) odds ratios and 95% confidence interval (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 2294 participants (59% current cricketers; 97% male; age 52 ± 15 years; played 29 ± 15 seasons; 62% recreational cricketers), 47% reported cricket-related injury and 10% reported concussion. Bowlers had greater odds of hip/groin [odds ratio (95% CI), 1.9 (1.0-3.3)], knee [2.0 (1.4-2.8)], shoulder [2.9 (1.8-4.5)], and back [2.8 (1.7-4.4)] injury compared with batters. High-performance cricketers had greater odds of injury and concussion than recreational cricketers. Wearing a helmet most of the time [2.0 (1.4-3.0)] or occasionally [1.8 (1.3-2.6)] was related to higher odds of self-reported concussion compared with never wearing a helmet. Concussion rates were similar in cricketers who always and never wore a helmet. CONCLUSIONS: A higher playing standard and bowling (compared with batting) were associated with greater odds of injury. Wearing a helmet occasionally or most of the time was associated with higher odds of self-reported concussion compared with never wearing a helmet.

Risk Factors for Mobility Decline in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Systematic Literature Review.

Mobility is essential to maintaining independence for older adults. This systematic review aimed to summarize evidence about self-reported risk factors for self-reported mobility decline; and to provide an overview of published prognostic models for self-reported mobility decline among community-dwelling older adults. Databases were searched from inception to June 2, 2020. Studies were screened by two independent reviewers who extracted data and assessed study quality. Sixty-one studies (45,187 participants) were included, providing information on 107 risk factors. High-quality evidence and moderate/large effect sizes for the association with mobility decline were found for older age beyond 75 years, the presence of widespread pain, and mobility modifications. Moderate-high quality evidence and small effect sizes were found for a further 21 factors. Three model development studies demonstrated acceptable model performance, limited by high risk of bias. These findings should be considered in intervention development, and in developing a prediction instrument for practical application.

Knee osteoarthritis and time-to all-cause mortality in six community-based cohorts: an international meta-analysis of individual participant-level data.

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic joint disease, with increasing global burden of disability and healthcare utilisation. Recent meta-analyses have shown a range of effects of OA on mortality, reflecting different OA definitions and study methods. We seek to overcome limitations introduced when using aggregate results by gathering individual participant-level data (IPD) from international observational studies and standardising methods to determine the association of knee OA with mortality in the general population. METHODS: Seven community-based cohorts were identified containing knee OA-related pain, radiographs, and time-to-mortality, six of which were available for analysis. A two-stage IPD meta-analysis framework was applied: (1) Cox proportional hazard models assessed time-to-mortality of participants with radiographic OA (ROA), OA-related pain (POA), and a combination of pain and ROA (PROA) against pain and ROA-free participants; (2) hazard ratios (HR) were then pooled using the Hartung-Knapp modification for random-effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS: 10,723 participants in six cohorts from four countries were included in the analyses. Multivariable models (adjusting for age, sex, race, BMI, smoking, alcohol consumption, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes) showed a pooled HR, compared to pain and ROA-free participants, of 1.03 (0.83, 1.28) for ROA, 1.35 (1.12, 1.63) for POA, and 1.37 (1.22, 1.54) for PROA. DISCUSSION: Participants with POA or PROA had a 35-37% increased association with reduced time-to-mortality, independent of confounders. ROA showed no association with mortality, suggesting that OA-related knee pain may be driving the association with time-to-mortality. FUNDING: Versus Arthritis Centre for Sport, Exercise and Osteoarthritis and Osteoarthritis Research Society International.

Musculoskeletal pain and loneliness, social support and social engagement among older adults: Analysis of the Oxford Pain, Activity and Lifestyle cohort.

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal (MSK) pain is common in older adults. Physical and psychological consequences of MSK pain have been established, but it is also important to consider the social impact. We aimed to estimate the association between MSK pain and loneliness, social support and social engagement. METHODS: We used baseline data from the Oxford Pain, Activity and Lifestyle study. Participants were community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or older from across England. Participants reported demographic information, MSK pain by body site, loneliness, social support and social engagement. We categorised pain by body regions affected (upper limb, lower limb and spinal). Widespread pain was defined as pain in all three regions. We used logistic regression models to estimate associations between distribution of pain and social factors, controlling for covariates. RESULTS: Of the 4977 participants analysed, 4193 (84.2%) reported any MSK pain, and one-quarter (n = 1298) reported widespread pain. Individuals reporting any pain were more likely to report loneliness (OR [odds ratio]: 1.62; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.32-1.97) or insufficient social support (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.08-2.19) compared to those reporting no pain. Widespread pain had the strongest association with loneliness (OR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.53-2.46) and insufficient social support (OR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.14-2.54). Pain was not associated with social engagement. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults commonly report MSK pain, which is associated with loneliness and perceived insufficiency of social support. This finding highlights to clinicians and researchers the need to consider social implications of MSK pain in addition to physical and psychological consequences.

The Prevalence of Back and Leg Pain and the Cross-sectional Association With Adverse Health Outcomes in Community Dwelling Older Adults in England.

STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of the Oxford Pain, Activity and Lifestyle (OPAL) Cohort Study. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of back pain (BP) and leg pain and determine their relationship with adverse health states among older adults in England. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Epidemiological data describing the prevalence of BP and leg pain in older adults in England is lacking. METHODS: A total of 5304 community-dwelling adults (aged 65-100 years) enrolled in the OPAL cohort study who provided data on BP and leg pain were included. Participants were classified into four groups based on reports of back and leg pain: no BP, BP only, BP and leg pain which was likely to be neurogenic claudication (NC), and BP and leg pain which was not NC. Adverse health states were frailty, falls, mobility decline, low walking confidence, poor sleep quality, and urinary incontinence. We collected demographic and socioeconomic information, health-related quality of life, and existing health conditions, and estimated the association between BP presentations and adverse health states using regression analysis. RESULTS: Thirty-four percent of participants (1786/5304) reported BP only, 11.2% (n = 594/5304) reported BP and NC and 8.3% (n = 441/5304) reported BP and non-NC leg pain. Participants with BP had worse quality of life compared to those without BP. All BP presentations were significantly associated with adverse health states. Those with NC were most affected. In particular, there was greater relative risk (RR) of low walking confidence (RR 3.11, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.56-3.78), frailty (RR 1.88, 95% CI 1.67-2.11), and mobility decline (RR 1.74, 95% CI 1.54-1.97) compared to no BP. CONCLUSION: Back and leg pain is a common problem for older adults and associated with reduced quality of life and adverse health states. Findings suggest a need to develop more effective treatment for older adults with BP especially for those with neurogenic claudication. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2.

Synergistic effects of hip/knee osteoarthritis and comorbidities on mobility and self-care limitations among older adults: Cross-sectional analysis of the Oxford pain, Activity and Lifestyle study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate synergistic effects of hip/knee osteoarthritis (OA) and comorbidities on mobility or self-care limitations among older adults. METHODS: We used baseline, cross-sectional data from the Oxford Pain, Activity and Lifestyle (OPAL) study. Participants were community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or older who completed a postal questionnaire. Participants reported demographic information, hip/knee OA, comorbidities and mobility and self-care limitations. We used modified Poisson regression models to estimate the independent and combined relative risks (RR) of mobility or self-care limitations, the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) between hip/knee OA and comorbidities, attributable proportion of the risk due to the interaction and the ratio of the combined effect and the sum of the individual effects, known as the synergy index. RESULTS: Of the 4,972 participants included, 1,532 (30.8%) had hip/knee OA, and of them 42.9% reported mobility limitations and 8.4% reported self-care limitations. Synergistic effects impacting self-care limitations were observed between hip/knee OA and anxiety (RR: 3.09, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.00 to 4.78; RERI: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.01 to 1.90), and between hip/knee OA and depressive symptoms (RR: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.75 to 4.20; RERI: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.03 to 1.48). The portion of the total RR attributable to this synergism was 30% and 22% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that synergism between hip/knee OA and anxiety or depressive symptoms contribute to self-care limitations. These findings highlight the importance of assessing and addressing anxiety or depressive symptoms when managing older adults with hip/knee OA to minimize self-care limitations.

Occupation and risk of knee osteoarthritis and knee replacement: A longitudinal, multiple-cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the effect of occupation on knee osteoarthritis (OA) and total knee replacement (TKR) in working-aged adults. METHODS: We used longitudinal data from the Chingford, Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) and Multicentre Osteoarthritis (MOST) studies. Participants with musculoskeletal disorders and/or a history of knee-related surgery were excluded. Participants were followed for up to 19-years (Chingford), 96-months (OAI) and 60-months (MOST) for incident outcomes including radiographic knee OA (RKOA), symptomatic RKOA and TKR. In those with baseline RKOA, progression was defined as the time from RKOA incidence to primary TKR. Occupational job categories and work-place physical activities were assigned to levels of workload. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between workload and incident outcomes with survival analyses used to assess progression (reference group: sedentary occupations). RESULTS: Heavy manual occupations were associated with a 2-fold increased risk (OR: 2.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 4.15) of incident RKOA in the OAI only. Men working in heavy manual occupations in MOST (2.7, 95% CI 1.17 to 6.26) and light manual occupations in OAI (2.00, 95% CI 1.09 to 3.68) had a 2-fold increased risk of incident RKOA. No association was observed among women. Increasing workload was associated with an increased risk of symptomatic RKOA in the OAI and MOST. Light work may be associated with a decreased risk of incident TKR and disease progression. CONCLUSION: Heavy manual work carries an increased risk of incident knee OA; particularly among men. Workload may influence the occurrence of TKR and disease progression.

Cohort profile: Oxford Pain, Activity and Lifestyle (OPAL) Study, a prospective cohort study of older adults in England.

PURPOSE: The 'Oxford Pain, Activity and Lifestyle' (OPAL) Cohort is a longitudinal, prospective cohort study of adults, aged 65 years and older, living in the community which is investigating the determinants of health in later life. Our focus was on musculoskeletal pain and mobility, but the cohort is designed with flexibility to include new elements over time. This paper describes the study design, data collection and baseline characteristics of participants. We also compared the OPAL baseline characteristics with nationally representative data sources. PARTICIPANTS: We randomly selected eligible participants from two stratified age bands (65-74 and 75 and over years). In total, 5409 individuals (42.1% of eligible participants) from 35 general practices in England agreed to participate between 2016 and 2018. The majority of participants (n=5367) also consented for research team to access their UK National Health Service (NHS) Digital and primary healthcare records. FINDINGS TO DATE: Mean participant age was 74.9 years (range 65-100); 51.5% (n=2784/5409) were women. 94.9% of participants were white, and 28.8% lived alone. Over 83.0% reported pain in at least one body area in the previous 6 weeks. Musculoskeletal symptoms were more prevalent in women (86.4%). One-third of participants reported having one or more falls in the last year. Most participants were confident in their ability to walk outside. The characteristics of OPAL Cohort participants were broadly similar to the general population of the same age. FUTURE PLANS: Postal follow-up of the cohort is being undertaken at annual intervals, with data collection ongoing. Linkage to NHS hospital admission data is planned. This English prospective cohort offers a large and rich resource for research on the longitudinal associations between demographic, clinical, and social factors and health trajectories and outcomes in community-dwelling older people.

Predicting Incident Radiographic Knee Osteoarthritis in Middle-Aged Women Within Four Years: The Importance of Knee-Level Prognostic Factors.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate risk models and a clinical risk score tool to predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis (RKOA) in middle-aged women. METHODS: We analyzed 649 women in the Chingford 1,000 Women study. The outcome was incident RKOA, defined as Kellgren/Lawrence grade 0-1 at baseline and ≥2 at year 5. We estimated predictors' effects on the outcome using logistic regression models. Two models were generated. The clinical model considered patient characteristics, medication, biomarkers, and knee symptoms. The radiographic model considered the same factors, plus radiographic factors (e.g., angle between the acetabular roof and the ilium's vertical cortex [hip α-angle]). The models were internally validated. Model performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination (area under the receiver characteristic curve [AUC]). RESULTS: The clinical model contained age, quadriceps circumference, and a cartilage degradation marker (C-terminal telopeptide of type II collagen) as predictors (AUC = 0.692). The radiographic model contained older age, greater quadriceps circumference, knee pain, knee baseline Kellgren/Lawrence grade 1 (versus 0), greater hip α-angle, greater spinal bone mineral density, and contralateral RKOA at baseline as predictors (AUC = 0.797). Calibration tests showed good agreement between the observed and predicted incident RKOA. A clinical risk score tool was developed from the clinical model. CONCLUSION: Two models predicting incident RKOA within 4 years were developed, including radiographic variables that improved model performance. First-time predictor hip α-angle and contralateral RKOA suggest OA origins beyond the knee. The clinical tool has the potential to help physicians identify patients at risk of RKOA in routine practice, but the tool should be externally validated.

Risk of Injury in Royal Air Force Training: Does Sex Really Matter?

INTRODUCTION: Musculoskeletal injuries are common during military and other occupational physical training programs. Employers have a duty of care to reduce employees' injury risk, where females tend to be at greater risk than males. However, quantification of principle co-factors influencing the sex-injury association, and their relative importance, remain poorly defined. Injury risk co-factors were investigated during Royal Air Force (RAF) recruit training to inform the strategic prioritization of mitigation strategies. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A cohort of 1,193 (males n = 990 (83%); females n = 203 (17%)) recruits, undertaking Phase-1 military training, were prospectively monitored for injury occurrence. The primary independent variable was sex, and potential confounders (fitness, smoking, anthropometric measures, education attainment) were assessed pre-training. Generalized linear models were used to assess associations between sex and injury. RESULTS: In total, 31% of recruits (28% males; 49% females) presented at least one injury during training. Females had a two-fold greater unadjusted risk of injury during training than males (RR = 1.77; 95% CI 1.49-2.10). After anthropometric, lifestyle and education measures were included in the model, the excess risk decreased by 34%, but the associations continued to be statistically significant. In contrast, when aerobic fitness was adjusted, an inverse association was identified; the injury risk was 40% lower in females compared with males (RR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.42-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: Physical fitness was the most important confounder with respect to differences in males' and females' injury risk, rather than sex alone. Mitigation to reduce this risk should, therefore, focus upon physical training, complemented by healthy lifestyle interventions.

Predominant lifetime occupation and associations with painful and structural knee osteoarthritis: An international participant-level cohort collaboration.

Objective: With adults working to older ages, occupation is an important, yet less modifiable domain of physical activity to consider in the risk of knee osteoarthritis (OA). This study aimed to investigate the association between predominant lifetime occupation and prevalent knee OA. Design: Participant-level data were used from five international community-based cohorts: Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, the Hertfordshire Cohort Study, the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study, the Tasmanian Cohort Study and Framingham Osteoarthritis Study. Self-reported predominant occupation was categorized into sedentary, light, light manual and heavy manual levels. Cross-sectional associations between predominant lifetime occupation and knee OA outcomes including prevalence of radiographic knee OA (RKOA), symptomatic RKOA and knee pain, were assessed using logistic regression, accounting for cohort clustering. Results: Data for 7391 participants were included. 24.7% reported sedentary lifetime occupation, 30.0% light, 35.9% light manual and 9.4% heavy manual. 43.3% presented with RKOA, 52.1% with knee pain and 29.0% with symptomatic RKOA. There was over a two-fold increase in the odds of having RKOA, knee pain and symptomatic RKOA in those whose with heavy manual compared to sedentary occupations ((odds ratio (OR): 2.14; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.79, 2.58), (OR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.78, 2.70), (OR: 2.41; 95% CI: 1.94, 2.99) respectively). Conclusion: This large international multi-cohort study demonstrated an association of heavy manual work with RKOA, symptomatic RKOA and knee pain. Measures that protect workers and are designed to reduce heavy manual related activities remain a priority to reduce the risk of knee OA.

Joint pain and osteoarthritis in former recreational and elite cricketers.

BACKGROUND: Sport participants are at increased risk of joint pain and osteoarthritis. A better understanding of factors associated with joint pain and osteoarthritis in this population could inform the development of strategies to optimise their long-term joint health. The purpose of the study was to describe the prevalence of joint pain and osteoarthritis in former cricketers, and determine whether playing position, playing standard (i.e. elite or recreational standard) and length-of-play are associated with region-specific joint pain. METHODS: The data were from the Cricket Health and Wellbeing Study (CHWS), a cohort of 2294 current and former cricketers (played ≥1 season) in England and Wales. For this study, eligible individuals had to be aged ≥30 years and be a former cricket participant. Joint pain was defined as region-specific (hip/knee/ankle/shoulder/hand/back) pain on most days of the last month. Osteoarthritis was defined as joint-specific doctor-diagnosed osteoarthritis. Logistic regression was used to calculate unadjusted and adjusted (for history of joint injury resulting in > 4 weeks of reduced activity +/- age) odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS: 846 individuals from the CHWS were former cricketers aged ≥30 years (3% female, aged median 62(IQR 54-69) years, 62% played cricket recreationally, median 33(IQR 21-41) cricket seasons). One-in-two (48%) reported joint pain and 38% had been diagnosed with osteoarthritis. Joint pain and OA were most common in the knee (23% pain, 22% osteoarthritis), followed by the back (14% pain, 10% osteoarthritis) and hand (12% pain, 6% osteoarthritis). After adjusting for injury, bowlers had greater odds of shoulder pain (OR (95% CI) 3.1(1.3, 7.4)) and back pain (3.6(1.8, 7.4)), and all-rounders had greater odds of knee (1.7(1.0, 2.7)) and back pain (2.1(1.0, 4.2)), compared to batters. Former elite cricketers had greater odds of hand pain (1.6(1.0, 2.5)) than former recreational cricketers. Playing standard was not related to pain at other sites, and length-of-play was not associated with joint pain in former cricketers. CONCLUSIONS: Every second former cricketer experienced joint pain on most days of the last month, and more than one in three had been diagnosed with osteoarthritis. Compared with batters, bowlers had higher odds of shoulder and back pain and all-rounders had higher odds of back and knee pain. Elite cricket participation was only related to higher odds of hand pain compared with recreational cricket participation.